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20-Win Challenge Odds

November 24, 2021 · 5 min read

How likely will you complete the 20-win challenge? Let’s find out.

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The CRL 20-win challenge is back! If you thought that winning a 12-win Grand Challenge was difficult, you must’ve never played the 20-win challenge before. But just how hard is winning a 20-win challenge? 🤔 Let‘s find out!

Table of Contents

Summary

The 20-win challenge has these simple rules:

  • Every player gets 3 free entries
  • You win the challenge if you have 20 wins
  • 3 losses and you’re out
  • You can’t play the challenge again once you’ve won
  • You can re-enter the challenge for 10 gems
  • Players with the Pass Royale can re-enter the challenge for unlimited retries!
  • Win an exclusive badge if you reach 17 wins or more
  • Other rewards in this challenge:
    • 1 Epic Chest (10 wins)
    • 1 Legendary King Chest (18 wins)
    • 215,000 Gold!

The Odds

The odds of winning the 20-win challenge depend highly on your battle win rate. If you can only win 30% of your battles in the challenge, then the odds of you getting to 20 wins are closed to 0.

For players who win 90% of their challenge battles, the probability of winning the challenge is very high — at 62%.

For the majority of the players, in equal playing field (assuming equal matchup), you have a 50% chance of winning each battle. Getting 20 wins for WR 50% is 0.0061% — roughly equivalent to 1 in 16,513! 😱

Better players at 70% Win Rates will still have a tough time completing the event — at 2.0666% probability or 1 in 48 odds.

Probability Data

Here’re all the numbers of the nerds!

10% Win Rate

W-L Probability Odds (1 in X)
0-3 72.9000% 1
1-3 21.8700% 5
2-3 4.3740% 23
3-3 0.7290% 137
4-3 0.1094% 914
5-3 0.0153% 6,532
6-3 0.0020% 48,991
7-3 0.0003% 381,039
8-3 0.0000% 3,048,316
9-3 0.0000% 24,940,766
10-3 0.0000% 207,839,714
11-3 0.0000% 1,758,643,734
12-3 0.0000% 15,074,089,148
13-3 0.0000% 130,642,105,951
14-3 0.0000% 1,143,118,427,069
15-3 0.0000% 10,086,339,062,374
16-3 0.0000% 89,656,347,221,101
17-3 0.0000% 802,188,369,873,013
18-3 0.0000% 7,219,695,328,857,110
19-3 0.0000% 65,321,052,975,373,800
20-2 0.0000% 587,889,476,778,364,000
20-1 0.0000% 5,555,555,555,555,540,000
20-0 0.0000% 100,000,000,000,000,000,000
20-win 0.0000% 528,820,729,772,606,000

30% Win Rate

W-L Probability Odds (1 in X)
0-3 34.3000% 3
1-3 30.8700% 3
2-3 18.5220% 5
3-3 9.2610% 11
4-3 4.1674% 24
5-3 1.7503% 57
6-3 0.7001% 143
7-3 0.2701% 370
8-3 0.1013% 987
9-3 0.0371% 2,693
10-3 0.0134% 7,481
11-3 0.0047% 21,100
12-3 0.0017% 60,285
13-3 0.0006% 174,157
14-3 0.0002% 507,957
15-3 0.0001% 1,493,992
16-3 0.0000% 4,426,642
17-3 0.0000% 13,202,265
18-3 0.0000% 39,606,794
19-3 0.0000% 119,449,063
20-2 0.0000% 278,714,479
20-1 0.0000% 2,048,551,422
20-0 0.0000% 28,679,719,908
20-win 0.0000% 243,254,622

50% Win Rate

W-L Probability Odds (1 in X)
0-3 12.5000% 8
1-3 18.7500% 5
2-3 18.7500% 5
3-3 15.6250% 6
4-3 11.7188% 9
5-3 8.2031% 12
6-3 5.4688% 18
7-3 3.5156% 28
8-3 2.1973% 46
9-3 1.3428% 74
10-3 0.8057% 124
11-3 0.4761% 210
12-3 0.2777% 360
13-3 0.1602% 624
14-3 0.0916% 1,092
15-3 0.0519% 1,928
16-3 0.0292% 3,427
17-3 0.0163% 6,132
18-3 0.0091% 11,038
19-3 0.0050% 19,973
20-2 0.0050% 19,973
20-1 0.0010% 104,858
20-0 0.0001% 1,048,576
20-win 0.0061% 16,513

70% Win Rate

W-L Probability Odds (1 in X)
0-3 2.7000% 37
1-3 5.6700% 18
2-3 7.9380% 13
3-3 9.2610% 11
4-3 9.7241% 10
5-3 9.5296% 10
6-3 8.8943% 11
7-3 8.0048% 12
8-3 7.0042% 14
9-3 5.9925% 17
10-3 5.0337% 20
11-3 4.1643% 24
12-3 3.4008% 29
13-3 2.7468% 36
14-3 2.1974% 46
15-3 1.7433% 57
16-3 1.3729% 73
17-3 1.0741% 93
18-3 0.8354% 120
19-3 0.6463% 155
20-2 1.5081% 66
20-1 0.4788% 209
20-0 0.0798% 1,253
20-win 2.0666% 48

90% Win Rate

W-L Probability Odds (1 in X)
0-3 0.1000% 1,000
1-3 0.2700% 370
2-3 0.4860% 206
3-3 0.7290% 137
4-3 0.9841% 102
5-3 1.2400% 81
6-3 1.4880% 67
7-3 1.7219% 58
8-3 1.9371% 52
9-3 2.1308% 47
10-3 2.3013% 43
11-3 2.4477% 41
12-3 2.5701% 39
13-3 2.6690% 37
14-3 2.7452% 36
15-3 2.8001% 36
16-3 2.8351% 35
17-3 2.8518% 35
18-3 2.8518% 35
19-3 2.8368% 35
20-2 25.5311% 4
20-1 24.3153% 4
20-0 12.1577% 8
20-win 62.0041% 2

Methodology

We use the following methodology to calculate the probabilities in this article.

  • Completion probability. We have broken down the chances a player has to complete a challenge.
  • Calculations. To calculate the probabilities, we have assumed that a player has a consistent Win Rate across the challenge. This isn’t the ideal model because difficulty increases as you advance in the challenge, but it’s a great way to see how Win Rate differences impact the final odds of success.
  • 20 wins. There are three final results that lead to a 20-win winner:
    • 20 wins, 2 losses
    • 20 wins, 1 loss
    • 20 wins, 0 losses
  • 20-win probability. The odds of winning a 20-win challenge is the sum of probabilities from all 3 results.

Endnotes

Winning the 20-win challenge is one of the hardest thing you can accomplish in Clash Royale. Finding the best decks to play in this challenge will go very far in helping you reach your goal. Come back after the challenge has started to find the best decks with our Deck Search.

  • Starts: November 25th, 09:00 UTC
  • Ends: November 30th, 09:00 UTC

Good luck at the CRL 2021 20-Win Challenge!

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Author: SML
SML (See-ming Lee) is the Founder of RoyaleAPI. He is a Clash Royale completionist, and has one of the most complete emote collection in the world. Clash Royale Creator Spotlight

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