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RoyaleAPI
20-Win Challenge Odds
How likely will you complete the 20-win challenge? Let’s find out.
stats feature 20win
The CRL 20-win challenge is back! If you thought that winning a 12-win Grand Challenge was difficult, you must’ve never played the 20-win challenge before. But just how hard is winning a 20-win challenge? 🤔 Let‘s find out!
Table of Contents
- Summary
- The Odds
- Probability Data
- 10% Win Rate
- 30% Win Rate
- 50% Win Rate
- 70% Win Rate
- 90% Win Rate
- Methodology
- Endnotes
Summary
The 20-win challenge has these simple rules:
- Every player gets 3 free entries
- You win the challenge if you have 20 wins
- 3 losses and you’re out
- You can’t play the challenge again once you’ve won
- You can re-enter the challenge for 10 gems
- Players with the Pass Royale can re-enter the challenge for unlimited retries!
- Win an exclusive badge if you reach 17 wins or more
- Other rewards in this challenge:
- 1 Epic Chest (10 wins)
- 1 Legendary King Chest (18 wins)
- 215,000 Gold!
The Odds
The odds of winning the 20-win challenge depend highly on your battle win rate. If you can only win 30% of your battles in the challenge, then the odds of you getting to 20 wins are closed to 0.
For players who win 90% of their challenge battles, the probability of winning the challenge is very high — at 62%.
For the majority of the players, in equal playing field (assuming equal matchup), you have a 50% chance of winning each battle. Getting 20 wins for WR 50% is 0.0061% — roughly equivalent to 1 in 16,513! 😱
Better players at 70% Win Rates will still have a tough time completing the event — at 2.0666% probability or 1 in 48 odds.
Probability Data
Here’re all the numbers of the nerds!
10% Win Rate
| W-L | Probability | Odds (1 in X) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 72.9000% | 1 |
| 1-3 | 21.8700% | 5 |
| 2-3 | 4.3740% | 23 |
| 3-3 | 0.7290% | 137 |
| 4-3 | 0.1094% | 914 |
| 5-3 | 0.0153% | 6,532 |
| 6-3 | 0.0020% | 48,991 |
| 7-3 | 0.0003% | 381,039 |
| 8-3 | 0.0000% | 3,048,316 |
| 9-3 | 0.0000% | 24,940,766 |
| 10-3 | 0.0000% | 207,839,714 |
| 11-3 | 0.0000% | 1,758,643,734 |
| 12-3 | 0.0000% | 15,074,089,148 |
| 13-3 | 0.0000% | 130,642,105,951 |
| 14-3 | 0.0000% | 1,143,118,427,069 |
| 15-3 | 0.0000% | 10,086,339,062,374 |
| 16-3 | 0.0000% | 89,656,347,221,101 |
| 17-3 | 0.0000% | 802,188,369,873,013 |
| 18-3 | 0.0000% | 7,219,695,328,857,110 |
| 19-3 | 0.0000% | 65,321,052,975,373,800 |
| 20-2 | 0.0000% | 587,889,476,778,364,000 |
| 20-1 | 0.0000% | 5,555,555,555,555,540,000 |
| 20-0 | 0.0000% | 100,000,000,000,000,000,000 |
| 20-win | 0.0000% | 528,820,729,772,606,000 |
30% Win Rate
| W-L | Probability | Odds (1 in X) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 34.3000% | 3 |
| 1-3 | 30.8700% | 3 |
| 2-3 | 18.5220% | 5 |
| 3-3 | 9.2610% | 11 |
| 4-3 | 4.1674% | 24 |
| 5-3 | 1.7503% | 57 |
| 6-3 | 0.7001% | 143 |
| 7-3 | 0.2701% | 370 |
| 8-3 | 0.1013% | 987 |
| 9-3 | 0.0371% | 2,693 |
| 10-3 | 0.0134% | 7,481 |
| 11-3 | 0.0047% | 21,100 |
| 12-3 | 0.0017% | 60,285 |
| 13-3 | 0.0006% | 174,157 |
| 14-3 | 0.0002% | 507,957 |
| 15-3 | 0.0001% | 1,493,992 |
| 16-3 | 0.0000% | 4,426,642 |
| 17-3 | 0.0000% | 13,202,265 |
| 18-3 | 0.0000% | 39,606,794 |
| 19-3 | 0.0000% | 119,449,063 |
| 20-2 | 0.0000% | 278,714,479 |
| 20-1 | 0.0000% | 2,048,551,422 |
| 20-0 | 0.0000% | 28,679,719,908 |
| 20-win | 0.0000% | 243,254,622 |
50% Win Rate
| W-L | Probability | Odds (1 in X) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 12.5000% | 8 |
| 1-3 | 18.7500% | 5 |
| 2-3 | 18.7500% | 5 |
| 3-3 | 15.6250% | 6 |
| 4-3 | 11.7188% | 9 |
| 5-3 | 8.2031% | 12 |
| 6-3 | 5.4688% | 18 |
| 7-3 | 3.5156% | 28 |
| 8-3 | 2.1973% | 46 |
| 9-3 | 1.3428% | 74 |
| 10-3 | 0.8057% | 124 |
| 11-3 | 0.4761% | 210 |
| 12-3 | 0.2777% | 360 |
| 13-3 | 0.1602% | 624 |
| 14-3 | 0.0916% | 1,092 |
| 15-3 | 0.0519% | 1,928 |
| 16-3 | 0.0292% | 3,427 |
| 17-3 | 0.0163% | 6,132 |
| 18-3 | 0.0091% | 11,038 |
| 19-3 | 0.0050% | 19,973 |
| 20-2 | 0.0050% | 19,973 |
| 20-1 | 0.0010% | 104,858 |
| 20-0 | 0.0001% | 1,048,576 |
| 20-win | 0.0061% | 16,513 |
70% Win Rate
| W-L | Probability | Odds (1 in X) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 2.7000% | 37 |
| 1-3 | 5.6700% | 18 |
| 2-3 | 7.9380% | 13 |
| 3-3 | 9.2610% | 11 |
| 4-3 | 9.7241% | 10 |
| 5-3 | 9.5296% | 10 |
| 6-3 | 8.8943% | 11 |
| 7-3 | 8.0048% | 12 |
| 8-3 | 7.0042% | 14 |
| 9-3 | 5.9925% | 17 |
| 10-3 | 5.0337% | 20 |
| 11-3 | 4.1643% | 24 |
| 12-3 | 3.4008% | 29 |
| 13-3 | 2.7468% | 36 |
| 14-3 | 2.1974% | 46 |
| 15-3 | 1.7433% | 57 |
| 16-3 | 1.3729% | 73 |
| 17-3 | 1.0741% | 93 |
| 18-3 | 0.8354% | 120 |
| 19-3 | 0.6463% | 155 |
| 20-2 | 1.5081% | 66 |
| 20-1 | 0.4788% | 209 |
| 20-0 | 0.0798% | 1,253 |
| 20-win | 2.0666% | 48 |
90% Win Rate
| W-L | Probability | Odds (1 in X) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 0.1000% | 1,000 |
| 1-3 | 0.2700% | 370 |
| 2-3 | 0.4860% | 206 |
| 3-3 | 0.7290% | 137 |
| 4-3 | 0.9841% | 102 |
| 5-3 | 1.2400% | 81 |
| 6-3 | 1.4880% | 67 |
| 7-3 | 1.7219% | 58 |
| 8-3 | 1.9371% | 52 |
| 9-3 | 2.1308% | 47 |
| 10-3 | 2.3013% | 43 |
| 11-3 | 2.4477% | 41 |
| 12-3 | 2.5701% | 39 |
| 13-3 | 2.6690% | 37 |
| 14-3 | 2.7452% | 36 |
| 15-3 | 2.8001% | 36 |
| 16-3 | 2.8351% | 35 |
| 17-3 | 2.8518% | 35 |
| 18-3 | 2.8518% | 35 |
| 19-3 | 2.8368% | 35 |
| 20-2 | 25.5311% | 4 |
| 20-1 | 24.3153% | 4 |
| 20-0 | 12.1577% | 8 |
| 20-win | 62.0041% | 2 |
Methodology
We use the following methodology to calculate the probabilities in this article.
- Completion probability. We have broken down the chances a player has to complete a challenge.
- Calculations. To calculate the probabilities, we have assumed that a player has a consistent Win Rate across the challenge. This isn’t the ideal model because difficulty increases as you advance in the challenge, but it’s a great way to see how Win Rate differences impact the final odds of success.
- 20 wins. There are three final results that lead to a 20-win winner:
- 20 wins, 2 losses
- 20 wins, 1 loss
- 20 wins, 0 losses
- 20-win probability. The odds of winning a 20-win challenge is the sum of probabilities from all 3 results.
Endnotes
Winning the 20-win challenge is one of the hardest thing you can accomplish in Clash Royale. Finding the best decks to play in this challenge will go very far in helping you reach your goal. Come back after the challenge has started to find the best decks with our Deck Search.
- Starts: November 25th, 09:00 UTC
- Ends: November 30th, 09:00 UTC
Good luck at the CRL 2021 20-Win Challenge!
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